Vermont lawmakers are currently considering a legislative overhaul that would fundamentally alter the state’s gambling landscape, where House Bill 913 (H.913) seeks to implement a dual-pronged strategy, adopting a per-wager tax structure inspired by Illinois and enacting a stringent criminal ban on prediction markets.
Adopting the Illinois Per-Bet Tax Model
If passed, H.913 would introduce a $0.50 fee for every sports wager placed through the state’s licensed operators. This proposal closely mirrors a model enacted in Illinois in 2025, which applies a $0.25 levy on the first 20 million bets and $0.50 thereafter. Other states, including Michigan, are eyeing similar structures; Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s FY27 budget proposes a $0.25–$0.50 per-bet sportsbook tax projected to generate $38.8 million.
However, industry experts warn that Vermont’s status as one of the smallest U.S. betting markets makes this move risky. In Illinois, the tax faced immediate backlash, leading operators to impose surcharges and minimum bet requirements. Recent data from the Illinois Gaming Board indicates that total wagers have declined significantly following the implementation of these fees.
In Vermont, such a flat tax could drive the state’s three current sportsbooks to exit the market or pass the costs directly to consumers via higher surcharges.
Criminalizing Prediction Markets
Beyond taxation, H.913 targets the burgeoning prediction market industry with sweeping criminal prohibitions. The bill intends to amend criminal gambling statutes:
“To ensure that the criminal prohibition of wagering activities includes offering prediction market securities or commodities that are contingent on the outcome of events related to sports, contests, natural persons, politics and campaigns, disasters, war, all-hazards, or death.”
The potential ban on prediction markets aligns Vermont with a broader multi-state crackdown. New York, Iowa, Hawaii, Illinois, and New Jersey have all introduced or passed legislation recently to restrict or regulate event contracts. Federally, Rep. Dina Titus and Senator Chris Murphy are also working on bans, with Murphy citing concerns over potential insider trading tied to geopolitical events.
