S&P Global Ratings has officially upgraded the long-term issuer credit rating of Cambodian casino operator NagaCorp Ltd from B to B+, assigning a stable outlook.
The credit upgrade reflects a dramatic improvement in the company’s balance-sheet liquidity and a significant reduction in near-term refinancing risks, though analysts note a return to pre-pandemic high-roller revenue peaks remains unlikely.
Structural Shift Toward Sustainable Mass-Market Play
The S&P assessment follows a similar rating move by Moody’s Investors Service, which raised NagaCorp’s corporate family rating from B3 to B2. Both agencies pointed to the group’s dramatic performance bounce in 2025, where net income jumped to US$ 309.9 million from US$ 110.6 million in 2024. Full-year EBITDA also doubled, closing at US$ 404.4 million.
However, S&P analysts Johann Tan, Isabel Goh, and Shawn Park noted that matching the company’s 2019 EBITDA high of US$ 667 million remains a challenge. In 2019, approximately 70% of gross gaming revenue was driven by junket-led referral VIP play. S&P expects that this segment will not return in its previous form, permanently altering the operator’s margin profile.
During the first quarter of 2026, NagaCorp reported a total GGR of US$ 174.7 million, reflecting a 2.1% annual increase driven exclusively by main-floor mass-market table games and electronic gaming machines, while VIP volumes continued to decline.
De-Leveraged Balance Sheet Mitigates Risk
The foundational driver of the B+ upgrade is NagaCorp’s robust net cash position. The company closed the year with a cash reserve of US$ 372 million against a solitary US$ 70 million shareholder loan obligation due for final settlement this month. S&P emphasized that management’s strict policy of limiting aggressive shareholder distributions and pausing non-essential capital expenditure since 2022 has successfully de-leveraged the firm.
Revised Capex Outlook for Naga 3 Expansion
While NagaCorp recently terminated a third-party subscription agreement intended to raise capital for its massive Naga 3 expansion project in Phnom Penh, the company remains committed to the development under a revised, scaled-down blueprint. S&P warns that any premature return to high dividend payout ratios could strain their credit profile.
Currently, the rating agency models a disciplined capex trajectory for the Naga 3 development, projecting an initial investment of US$ 170 million in 2026, which is expected to scale up to US$ 380 million in 2027, funded primarily through internal cash reserves.
