UK-based exchange platform Smarkets is preparing to cross the Atlantic to capitalize on the explosive growth of the US prediction market sector. Following a landmark 2024 court decision that legitimized political event contracts under the CFTC, monthly trading volumes in the US have surged from $1.2 billion to an estimated $20 billion.
A Return to American Roots
The expansion holds personal significance for founder and CEO Jason Trost, who originally left New York for London in 2008 because prediction markets were effectively banned in the United States. Now, with a user base of one million accounts and $32 million in annual revenue, Trost is seeking CFTC approval to bring his exchange model back to the US.
Sports as the Long-Term Growth Driver
While competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket focus on political outcomes, Smarkets intends to focus on sports as the primary engine for long-term engagement. The company argues that news-based events are too infrequent to maintain daily user activity, whereas sports provide a constant stream of high-volume trading opportunities.
Trost believes the exchange model, where users trade against each other rather than the house, will allow Smarkets to stand out through lower margins and better pricing.
Furthermore, the company is leaning on its experience under strict UK regulations to navigate rising US concerns regarding insider information and gambling addiction.
“Sports betting is the real driver… matches and live events happen almost every hour,” the company logic suggests.
As the US market continues to find its shape, Smarkets’ entry represents a significant maturation of the space, moving prediction markets closer to the mainstream financial and betting ecosystems.
