The land-based casino sector in the Philippines is facing sustained pressure that is expected to persist throughout 2026, according to Praveen Choudhary, Managing Director and Head of Asian Gaming and Lodging at Morgan Stanley.
Delivering a keynote at G2E Asia 2026, Choudhary warned that returns have fallen sharply compared to the market’s lucrative peaks of previous years.
Factors Driving the Downturn
Choudhary pointed to a double-digit decline in visitor arrivals from the country’s two primary source markets: South Korea and China. Even after the Philippine government moved to ease visa restrictions for mainland Chinese tourists, the visitor flow has failed to rebound significantly. This trend, coupled with the aggressive rise of online betting platforms, has fundamentally altered the land-based business model.
Official statistics released last month support this cautious outlook, showing that gross gaming revenue (GGR) for licensed land-based casinos fell 9.6% to PHP 182.50 billion (US$ 2.97 billion) in 2025. Choudhary does not anticipate a recovery in 2027, stating that there is currently “no reason to believe that a turn in fortunes will happen soon.”
Regional Outlook: Japan and UAE
Choudhary also offered a skeptical view of Japan’s project pipeline, doubting that MGM Osaka, a joint venture between MGM Resorts and Orix Corp, will meet its 2030 opening target. He advised investors not to spend time on that thesis given the long lead times for such massive integrated resorts.
In contrast to the Philippines, Morgan Stanley expressed optimism regarding the UAE, where the US$ 5.1 billion Wynn Al Marjan Island is under development. Choudhary highlighted the project’s monopoly status and the strength of luxury-driven demand in the Middle East.
Although Wynn recently indicated a potential delay for the spring 2027 opening due to regional conflicts, the project remains one of the most closely watched expansions in the global gaming sector.
