Macau’s casino industry is projected to see its gross gaming revenue (GGR) grow significantly faster than its direct rivals in Las Vegas and Singapore during 2026.
In a recent note to investors, banking giant Morgan Stanley forecasted that Macau’s industry GGR would rise by approximately 6% year-on-year, far outstripping the 1% growth projected for the other major global hubs. This follows a strong performance in 2025, where official figures showed Macau’s GGR climbing 9.1% to reach roughly $30.63 billion.
However, the report carries a sobering warning for operators: while revenue is climbing, profitability is expected to lag behind. Morgan Stanley predicts that EBITDA for the Macau industry will increase by a mere 2% in 2026, a figure that falls short of market expectations and suggests a period of margin compression for the city’s six major concessionaires.
Structural Cost Pressures in the “Premium Mass” Era
The primary reason for this disconnect between top-line growth and bottom-line profit is a shift in market structure. With the decline of traditional junket-led VIP business, operators have pivoted heavily toward the “premium mass” segment.
This has led to “reinvestment” costs, such as aggressive marketing incentives, luxury promotions, and high-end non-gaming amenities, that are significantly dragging down margins.
Morgan Stanley pointed to three specific factors for the 2% EBITDA growth forecast:
- A slowdown in Macau’s GGR momentum expected in the second half of 2026.
- Persistently high levels of promotion and reinvestment allowances to attract mid-tier players.
- Ongoing non-gaming expenses tied to the 10-year concessions started in 2023.
Meanwhile, Singapore is expected to see its gaming volumes increase by mid-single digits as Resorts World Sentosa opens new amenities. However, Morgan Stanley expects high hold rates from 2025 to normalize in 2026, which will likely leave the industry GGR flat and result in a 1% year-on-year decline in EBITDA for the region.
