Kalshi, the leading US-regulated event contract exchange, has officially launched its services in Brazil, marking the first time the company has expanded its footprint outside the United States.
This landmark entry was achieved through a strategic partnership with XP International, a division of one of Brazil’s most formidable financial institutions.
Breaking New Ground in Prediction Markets
The move positions Kalshi as the first functional prediction market operator in Brazil, narrowly beating the local stock exchange operator, B3, which had previously received regulatory approval to launch by late March. Through this partnership, clients of XP’s Clear Corretora brand who hold international investment accounts can now trade contracts on real-world events.
Initially, the platform will focus on financial and economic events, mirroring the sophisticated trading environment Kalshi established in the US.
Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi Co-Founder and a native of Brazil, expressed the personal and professional significance of the launch:
“As a Brazilian, I couldn’t be more excited for XP to be Kalshi’s first brokerage partner outside the US. XP is one of Brazil’s largest financial institutions; expanding prediction markets to Brazil is an important step in providing more people around the world with access to fair, safe and regulated markets”.
The Regulatory “Grey Zone” Challenge
While Kalshi is now live, the legal landscape for prediction markets in Brazil remains complex. Unlike the strictly regulated fixed-odds betting sector, which went live on January 1, 2025, prediction markets currently exist in a “grey zone” without a bespoke federal framework.
Andre Santa Ritta, a partner at Pinheiro Neto Advogados, noted the potential friction between this new sector and traditional iGaming:
“In Brazil, you have this regulatory grey zone in which we don’t know yet where to place the predictions market industry, because it’s not iGaming and it’s not within this framework of the fixed-odds betting industry. I think people who place wagers are not necessarily the same people who are actually buying contracts in the predictions market, but sometimes there is this overlap… It’s another challenge”.
