A specialized reservist major in the Israeli Air Force (IAF) is facing severe security charges after allegedly leveraging confidential military briefings to turn a profit on the prediction market Polymarket.
An indictment filed in the Tel Aviv District Court reveals that the officer and a civilian accomplice used state secrets regarding the timing of military strikes to place successful high-stakes wagers.
Betting on the Frontlines
According to prosecutors, the Israeli Air force Reservist reservist shared details of a planned offensive against Iran on June 12, 2025—one day before the operation commenced. The civilian partner then placed a wager on Polymarket tied to the strike’s timing. When Israeli jets launched on June 13, the pair split winnings exceeding $160,000, paid out in cryptocurrency to a digital wallet.
The scheme reportedly continued into September with wagers on strikes in Yemen, and only halted in January 2026 after the accomplice feared social media scrutiny. While the IDF stressed that “no operational harm was caused,” they condemned the actions as a “severe ethical failure” and a “clear crossing of a red line”.
A Systemic Issue in the Air Force
The case has exposed a potential betting culture within the military. During interrogations, a separate higher-ranking crew member admitted to making tens of thousands of dollars on similar wagers, claiming:
“The entire squadron is on Polymarket, the entire air force is betting.”
Evidence against him included a WhatsApp message to his wife stating: “Good morning to your genius man who turned $1,000 into $46,000.” Investigators also found that at least one commander was aware of the betting and expressed regret that he hadn’t joined in sooner.
This scandal arrives as global regulators in the US and Europe move to ban government officials from utilizing insider knowledge on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
