A new study commissioned by the Gambling is Not Investing (GINI) coalition suggests that the American public is not fooled by the financial branding of prediction markets.
Conducted by Morning Consult, the poll found that 81% of U.S. adults believe trading on sports outcomes via “event contracts” is fundamentally gambling.
The “Duck Test” for Event Contracts
The coalition, led by former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, argues that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are dodging critical consumer safeguards, such as age requirements and state tax frameworks, by classifying themselves as financial “swaps” under the CFTC.
“This polling confirms that unabated sports gambling on prediction markets is a growing concern… Let’s face it, if it quacks like a duck, it’s sports betting,” Mulvaney stated.
Concerns Over Youth Access
The GINI data reveals deep public anxiety regarding age limits. Unlike licensed sportsbooks that enforce a minimum age of 21, some prediction markets allow 18-year-olds to trade. 77% of respondents expressed worry that this access increases gambling-related harm among young adults. Furthermore, 73% noted that labeling these wagers as “swaps” or “futures” makes it harder for users to grasp the actual financial risks involved.
While the CFTC maintains that these contracts fall under financial regulation, GINI is lobbying for regulatory parity, demanding that any platform offering sports-related outcomes operate under the same strict rules as DraftKings and FanDuel.
