France’s primary gambling authority, L’Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), has issued a stern reminder to the public and operators alike regarding its unwavering opposition to prediction markets.
The regulator has categorized these platforms as possessing “several addictive characteristics,” raising concerns over their rapid rise in popularity among demographics typically unaffected by traditional gambling products.
The ANJ’s primary concern lies in how these platforms are marketed, often disguised as “investment options” rather than games of chance. This linguistic shift, according to the regulator, creates a dangerous “illusion of competence” in the user.
The logic dictates that the more a user feels they can predict the news or geopolitical events, the more they wager, leading to a cycle of addictive behavior fueled by the false belief that they are “investing” rather than betting.
Furthermore, the France’s Gambling Authority pointed out the stark lack of protections on prediction platforms platforms compared to licensed gambling sites. Prediction markets often operate without built-in betting limits, time-tracking tools, or rigorous identity and age verification checks.
Beyond individual risks, the ANJ warned of broader societal dangers, including market manipulation and financial incentives that could lead to performance sabotage in sports or even violent geopolitical actions.
“This perception of the ‘prediction market’ as a form of ‘investment’ reinforces an illusion of competence: the more competent the user believes themselves to be, the more they play, and the more addictive the behaviour becomes,” the ANJ stated in its official release. “The media coverage of large winnings… reinforces this illusion in the player, who becomes someone who ‘predicts the news better than everyone else.’”
ANJ’s renewed stance follows the recent decision by Polymarket to geo-block access to its services in France following a direct intervention by the ANJ, which deemed its operations as unauthorized gambling.
