A recent report by the National Confederation of Commerce (CNC), which claimed that online betting cost the Brazilian retail sector R$143.8 billion, has come under intense scrutiny.
Plínio Lemos Jorge, President of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), has formally challenged the study’s findings, arguing they are based on fundamental misunderstandings of betting market economics.
Inflated Figures and Data Mismatches
The primary point of contention lies in the disparity between official government data and the CNC’s estimates. While Brazil’s Ministry of Finance reported that the regulated betting sector generated R$37 billion in Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR), the standard measure for actual consumer expenditure, the CNC study alleged a monthly turnover of R$29 billion, suggesting an annual figure exceeding R$340 billion.
Plínio Lemos Jorge noted that this mismatch stems from a confusion between total turnover and net expenditure. In a single session, a user may win and re-wager funds multiple times; adding these transactions together artificially inflates the perceived cost to the consumer.
Structural Debt vs. Gambling Activity
The ANJL also addressed the National Confederation of Commerces’ claim that betting activity is a primary driver of household debt. Jorge argues this assumption lacks factual support, pointing instead to Brazil’s current economic structure:
- High Interest Rates: Households are heavily burdened by record-high interest rates.
- Expensive Credit: The revolving rate for credit cards averages 438%, with a default rate of 64.5%.
- Income Commitment: Interest expenditures alone consume 8.6% of household incomes.
Shifting Consumer Trends
Data from the Ministry of Finance and Pay4Fun shows that while 28 million people in Brazil participate in betting, the majority are casual users: 53.3% spend R$50 or less. LCA Economic Consultancy further estimated average monthly net expenditure at just R$122 per person (3.3% of income).
Jorge concluded that changes in retail spending are more likely tied to broader trends, such as the 31% increase in food e-commerce in 2025:
“The bottom line is straightforward: the debate around betting should be based on sound reasoning. It will not help if the public ignores the burden of income commitment caused by record-high interest rates to blame some scapegoat. Brazilian citizens deserve proper public policies. And proper public policies require numbers that make sense.“
