The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has issued a severe economic warning ahead of the UK government’s November 26 budget, cautioning that a substantial rise in gambling taxes could significantly damage the national economy and lead to mass job losses.
The warning comes as the government prepares to outline the plan for new gambling taxes in the UK, with various proposals circulating that suggest raising existing betting, gaming, and remote gambling duties.
The findings were detailed in a report titled “Impacts of Changes to Betting and Gaming Regulation,” commissioned by the BGC and published by consultancy EY-Parthenon.
The report modeled several tax scenarios, analyzing the potential effects of aligning all three core duties, general betting, remote gambling, and machine gaming—at higher rates.
According to the analysis, while increasing all tax rates in the short term might boost government revenue, it carries the severe risk of accelerating the growth of the illegal black market.
This shift would ultimately reduce long-term tax receipts and employment across the regulated sector. The report provided clear projections illustrating these threats.
For example, modeling showed that aligning all duties at 21% would raise an estimated extra £250 million but could simultaneously cause a £400 million increase in black market betting. This specific scenario would eliminate any perceived tax benefit and lead to the loss of nearly 3,000 jobs.
More extreme proposals, such as one from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) suggesting lifting duties to as high as 50%, would be devastating.
Under that model, the report estimated that total gross value added (GVA) would fall by £3.1 billion, while job losses could spiral up to 40,000 across the sector.
Similarly, a plan from the Social Market Foundation (SMF) could trigger £8 billion in illegal market growth and over 30,000 job losses under higher elasticity conditions.
Major operators have echoed the BGC’s concerns. Reports suggest William Hill could close between 120 and 200 retail shops if tax rises proceed, and Flutter Entertainment has already announced plans to shut 57 Paddy Power outlets, citing rising economic pressure.
Industry groups argue that such tax hikes would erode consumer protection by strengthening the illegal market, pushing players toward unregulated operators.
As the UK Treasury finalizes its plans, the impending budget will determine whether the government prioritizes sustainable reform or risks a significant setback to a globally successful sector.
Grainne Hurst, CEO of the BGC, strongly criticized the potential tax hikes:
“Figures speak for themselves. Tens of thousands of jobs lost, billions diverted to the black market and a possible £3 billion hit to the economy.”
She also warned of the consequences for retail outlets and the black market:
“Tax raids like those proposed would mean fewer betting shops, casinos and bingo halls, fewer jobs and a huge boost to the growing, unsafe gambling black market, while not raising anywhere near the tax claimed.”
Hurst urged the government to prioritize stability:
“Britain’s betting and gaming sector is a world leader – employing thousands, paying billions in tax, and investing in British sport. The choice is clear: back a successful, sustainable, regulated British industry – or risk losing jobs, investment and growth.”
