Macau’s casino industry is entering 2026 with a bullish outlook on profitability, even as top-line revenue growth stabilizes. According to recent analysis, while gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to expand by roughly 6 percent this year, profit momentum is expected to climb even higher, targeting 6 to 7 percent growth.
This divergence highlights a critical shift in the casino industry of Macau, where operators are becoming significantly more efficient at converting wagering volume into earnings.
2025: A Year of Recovery
The positive forecast follows a solid performance in 2025. The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that Macau finished the year with a total GGR of 247.4 billion patacas (approximately $30.9 billion USD), a 9.1 percent increase from 2024. The final quarter was particularly strong, posting a post-COVID record of 66.1 billion patacas ($8.24 billion USD), driven largely by a surprising 23 percent resurgence in the VIP sector.
Forecasts and Efficiency
Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella forecasts a steady ascent for the market, predicting a 5.8 percent GGR rise to $32.8 billion USD in 2026, followed by 5.0 percent growth in 2027. Immediate expectations are high, with January GGR projected to jump 10.9 percent year-on-year.
However, the real story lies in margins. JP Morgan analysts noted that for the first time since the pandemic, profit growth is set to outpace revenue growth. This signals a “normalization phase” where operators have successfully streamlined costs. The analysis suggests that while the explosive revenue recovery of the immediate post-COVID era may settle, the industry’s bottom line will benefit from stricter cost management and operational discipline.
As the Macau sector moves into the first quarter of 2026, all eyes will be on whether the mass market and slot segments, which outperformed expectations with 7 percent growth last year, can sustain their momentum alongside the revitalized VIP sector.
