After establishing itself as a major disruptor in the United States gambling and financial sectors, prediction market platform Kalshi has set its sights on South America. Luana Lopes Lara, the company’s Brazilian co-founder, revealed in an interview with Valor that the New York-based firm is exploring a potential expansion into the Brazilian market, with plans to potentially launch as early as 2026.
Disrupting the Status Quo
Kalshi has been one of the standout stories of 2025, reaching a valuation of $11 billion following its third fundraising round. The platform garnered significant attention, and controversy, by offering contracts on major political and cultural events. Its success has already influenced the wider industry, prompting betting giants DraftKings and FanDuel to launch their own prediction market products earlier this month in partnership with CME Group.
Homecoming Plans
For Lopes Lara, the expansion is personal. “One of the first things we announced after the round was our plan to expand internationally,” she told Valor. “Brazil means a lot to me. I really want us to operate there. We’re still studying how to do it, but I hope we can announce something in early 2026.”
She noted that the business is “just getting started” and emphasized that there is currently no product comparable to Kalshi operating in Brazil.
Regulatory Hurdles Ahead
While the ambition is clear, the regulatory path in Brazil remains uncertain. The country recently launched its regulated online betting market in 2025 under the oversight of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA). However, neither the SPA nor the Brazil Securities Commission has issued a formal stance on prediction markets.
Kalshi is no stranger to legal friction. The company is currently embroiled in court battles across the US, including in Nevada and Connecticut, where regulators argue the platform circumvents state gambling laws. Kalshi maintains it operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
With Brazil’s government actively seeking to increase tax revenue from the betting sector and enhance financial safety, a product that sits outside traditional frameworks is likely to face scrutiny.
Source: Valor
