Prediction market platform Kalshi announced on Monday that it had crossed $100 billion in annualized trading volume, a figure that has drawn immediate scrutiny from industry observers.
The company derived the number by taking its record-breaking weekly volume of $1.98 billion, recorded during the peak of the NFL season, and projecting it across a full 52-week year.
“Unserious” Math?
Critics were quick to point out the flaw in this extrapolation. The trading period coincided with the final week of the NFL regular season and the College Football Playoff, a time when sports betting activity is at its absolute zenith. “That’s a pretty unserious way to arrive at annual volume,” noted gambling industry analyst Dustin Gouker. With sports accounting for over 90% of activity on the site, sustaining such numbers during the slower summer months remains a significant challenge.
Growth Drivers and Stumbles
Despite the skepticism over the projection, Kalshi’s growth is undeniable. The platform has boosted liquidity through integrations with Coinbase and crypto wallet Phantom, and recently launched tokenized markets on Solana. However, the growth narrative has been marred by operational errors.
The platform faced backlash this week for incorrectly settling NFL win total markets. Initially, Kalshi only reimbursed the original stake for users with winning tickets, sparking outrage. “The market should have been settled as such. There is literally no reason why not,” one user complained regarding a San Francisco 49ers bet.
Following the outcry, Kalshi reversed course and agreed to pay the full settlement value.
CEO Remains Optimistic
Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour celebrated the $100 billion milestone, disregarding the criticism of the annualized projection. “It feels surreal,” Mansour wrote on X. “We have so much more to learn and so much more to do.” As the football season winds down, all eyes will be on whether Kalshi can retain this volume or if the $100 billion figure will remain a theoretical peak rather than a reality.
