Analysts at Jefferies Financial Group are projecting a bullish outlook for Macau’s gaming sector, estimating a 5.3 percent rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2026.
This forecast builds on a robust 2025 performance, where GGR climbed 9.1 percent year-on-year to MOP247.4 billion ($30.86 billion), surpassing the firm’s own estimates. In a recent note, the Jefferies Financial Group team expressed “optimism for stocks heading into the new year,” citing favorable year-over-year comparisons and a government target of MOP236 billion that they view as conservative.
Visitor Numbers to Break Records
The recovery is driven by surging visitation, which analysts predict will hit a new record of 41.98 million between 2026 and 2027. Mainland China remains the primary source market, expected to contribute 30.43 million visitors, while international arrivals are projected to jump by 10 percent to 4.09 million.
Despite the influx, spending habits are stabilizing; analysts note that “the average amount spent by visitors will stay steady at around MOP6,207 ($774),” as the city successfully pivots to attracting longer-stay tourists.
Operator Outlook: Sands and Galaxy
When it comes to the casinos in Macau, Sands China retains its dominance, with analysts forecasting it to lead the pack with $8.35 billion in revenue for 2026, holding approximately 24.4 percent of the market share. Galaxy Entertainment Group follows closely, aiming for a 20-22 percent market share by 2027, bolstered by its Phase 4 expansion.
This massive development includes 1,500 new rooms and a 5,000-seat theater, designed to capture premium mass play.
Galaxy is also rolling out “Smart Tables” to balance competition, projecting an 11 percent yearly gain to reach HK$48.48 billion in GGR. Meanwhile, MGM China continues its aggressive premium push, eyeing a mid-teens market share driven by upgrades to its Alpha Club and Mansion One suites. Jefferies currently rates Galaxy, Sands, MGM, and Wynn as “buys”.
