A group of 12 U.S. senators has demanded answers from Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig regarding suspicious trading on prediction markets linked to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
In a letter, the senators expressed concern over trading activity that appeared to anticipate Maduro’s capture hours before it was publicly announced. “A market on whether Maduro would be out of power rose sharply late on Friday, Jan. 2, roughly six and a half hours before President Donald Trump publicly announced Maduro and his wife were ‘captured and flown out of the Country,’” the letter detailed.
Insider Trading Concerns
The lawmakers highlighted a specific account on Polymarket that wagered $30,000 on Maduro’s exit and profited over $436,000. They described the timing as “improbable” and a potential indicator of insider trading.
The letter also questioned the oversight of Polymarket’s operations, noting the distinction between its CFTC-registered U.S. entity and its global exchange. The senators asked Selig to explain how the agency monitors for non-public information misuse and whether existing anti-fraud regulations apply to these event contracts.
“Event contracts that reference military operations or national security matters could create risks even before trading begins,” the senators warned.
The inquiry adds to growing pressure on prediction markets, following calls from the gaming industry for stricter regulation of “event contracts” that resemble sports betting.
