Flutter Entertainment did a complete revision of the fiscal year 2024 and lowered expected revenue forecasts by a staggering $370 million amid surprisingly unfavourable USA sports results.
More specifically, Flutter Entertainment reached this conclusion after the company reported negative sports betting results in the US in November and December of 2024, mostly driven by Same Game Parlay and NFL parlay outcomes.
As a result, the company updated its US revenue expectations by a whopping $370 million, revealing a new estimate of $5.78 billion and adjusted EBITDA by $205 million, amounting to a new projection of $505 million.
According to the official statement, Flutter attributed this big decline to a two-decade rate of favourites winning in the NFL, leading to a projected GGR (gross gaming revenue) impact of $438 million.
When it comes to Q4 2024, Flutter’s USA revenue is estimated at $1.59 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $161 million.
Moreover, Flutter stated that despite the challenges, its key structural margin is still strong at 14.5%, making for a year-on-year rise of 100 basis points thanks to higher-margin sports offerings and the parlay bets by FanDuel.
Yet, Flutter’s margins went down by 390 basis points due to negative sports results, which is substantially higher than the 240 basis points for Q4 in 2023. As a result, Flutter reduced marketing spending by 20 basis points in order to battle these negative outcomes.
Although the US market performance is way below expectations, Flutter still reported above-average results outside the United States, specifically in the UK and Ireland.
The company says that adjusted EBITDA and revenue in these particular markets is expected to surpass previous projections by 1% for the UK and 2% for Ireland, forecasts primarily driven by favourable outcomes in the English Premier League.
Flutter remains positive as the company stated that the negative impact of recent US sports results doesn’t change its growth expectations in the long run, being that it preserves credence in its structural margins and growth drivers for 2025.
