Strong US Draw Activity and Canadian Managed Service Wins Propel Group EBITDA Expectations Upward Ahead of Audited August Release
ASX-listed digital lottery and prize draw provider Jumbo Interactive Limited (ASX:JIN) has issued an official update to its FY26 financial outlook. The announcement, authorized by the company’s Board of Directors, provides a revised forecast based on multi-market trading performance over recent months ahead of the scheduled release of its audited FY26 results on 27 August 2026.
The upgraded estimates heavily reflect the operations of the recently acquired Dream Car Giveaways (Dream UK) and Dream Giveaway (Dream US) businesses, both of which completed integration tracks in October 2025. While individual international segments experienced varied structural revisions, the cumulative impact positions the group for double-digit underlying earnings expansion compared to the prior calendar period.
Breakdown of International and Managed Service Metrics
The updated unaudited management forecast details shifting localized performance parameters across Jumbo’s core geographic business units:
I. Dream US
The revised underlying EBITDA range for the 8-month period of US$5.2 million to US$5.5 million represents a material increase over the initial February guidance of US$2.7 million to US$3.0 million. Management attributed this outperformance to shifts in draw mechanics, with the platform running 29 draws in FY26 compared to 16 in the previous corresponding period (pcp). Ongoing investments will include migrating Dream US onto the core Jumbo Lottery Platform alongside a brand-new application scheduled for 1QFY27.
II. Dream UK
Dream UK’s underlying EBITDA range for its 8½-month operational period is now expected to land between £7.0 million and £7.3 million, down from the previous outlook of £8.0 million to £8.3 million. Despite the near-term reduction caused by increased transitional investment and new market testing initiatives, the annualised result reflects a 20% to 25% growth trajectory over the £8.3 million reported in April 2025 prior to the acquisition. A new business head takes leadership this month to execute an orderly transition as the founders prepare to exit by December 2026.
III. Managed Services (UK & Canada)
- Canada: EBITDA growth expectations surged from an initial 20%–25% projection up to a revised 35%–45%. The growth was driven by new business acquisition wins, aggressive product line investment, and highly favorable promotional campaign timing.
- United Kingdom: EBITDA growth has been tightened to approximately 10%, tracking the lower boundary of its initial 10%–15% guidance. The metric was impacted by a run of higher-than-expected jackpots, which were partially offset by rigid corporate cost discipline.
Group Underlying Earnings Expectations
Factoring in the international adjustments, Jumbo Interactive has updated its high-level Group underlying metrics. Underlying NPATA is projected to expand by 13% to 18%, landing at an estimated A$48 million to A$50 million.
Group Underlying Earnings Forecast Comparison
| Group Metric (A$M) | FY25 Actuals | Revised FY26 Outlook Range | Expected Year-on-Year Growth |
| Underlying EBITDA | 68.3 | 82 – 85 | 20% – 24% |
| Underlying NPAT | 39.9 | 39 – 41 | (2%) – 3% |
| Underlying NPATA | 42.3 | 48 – 50 | 13% – 18% |
Note: Underlying EBITDA parameters exclude one-off, non-recurring pre-tax items of approximately A$8 million to A$9 million. These items include transaction and integration costs from the Dream UK and Dream US transactions, Business Combinations accounting adjustments under AASB 3, and unrealized foreign exchange impacts on intercompany loans. Underlying NPAT figures include approximately A$9 million of incremental, non-cash amortisation of acquired intangibles linked to software, customer relationships, and trademarks.
