Technology giant Apple has introduced strict new rules prohibiting employees and contractors from utilizing confidential company information to trade on prediction markets.
The updated policy was detailed in the company’s latest Form 10-K filing submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Under the new guidelines, personnel are explicitly banned from wagering, buying, or selling event contracts based on future outcomes when such activities involve privileged data obtained through their employment at Apple. The restriction extends beyond Apple’s internal data to cover confidential information concerning business partners, suppliers, manufacturers, vendors, and customers.
Furthermore, Apple has cautioned staff against sharing sensitive information with third parties who might use it to participate in prediction markets. The filing explicitly states:
“Do not participate in ‘prediction markets’ or similar platforms to wager, bet, trade, buy or sell contracts based on the outcome of future events, or otherwise enter into event contracts, when such activity involves the use of Apple Confidential Information.”
Apple’s disclosure reflects a broader corporate crackdown across major financial and corporate institutions, including Goldman Sachs and McKinsey, as prediction markets face heightened scrutiny regarding the potential misuse of privileged data.
Persistent insider trading concerns and federal investigations
The risks highlighting corporate policy updates have already materialized in high-profile legal actions. In June 2026, US federal authorities brought criminal charges against Italian software engineer Michele Spagnuolo, accusing him of exploiting confidential information obtained through his work at Google to generate more than $1.2 million in alleged profits on Polymarket. According to the regulatory complaint, Spagnuolo allegedly traded via an account under the pseudonym AlphaRaccoon using advance knowledge of Google’s annual Year in Search 2025 report.
The US Department of Justice filed charges encompassing wire fraud, money laundering, and violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) initiated civil proceedings seeking financial penalties, the recovery of alleged gains, and trading bans. In response to such integrity risks, prediction market platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood have updated their internal surveillance and insider trading detection frameworks.
Explosive growth and regulatory pressures
These corporate safeguards arrive amid unprecedented commercial expansion within the US prediction market industry. According to DeFi Rate analysis tracking eight exchanges, US prediction market trading volume surged to $120.73 billion in October 2026, marking a 64.1 percent increase from September’s $73.58 billion. This scaling has attracted massive venture investment, highlighted by Kalshi securing a $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation on October 29, and Polymarket raising $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation in September. Macquarie analysts have forecasted that overall prediction market taker volume could reach $187 billion by the end of 2026.
Simultaneously, commercial growth has triggered fierce legal battles. Over 20 US states are currently engaged in legal proceedings against prediction market platforms, contesting whether sports-related event contracts fall under federal commodities oversight or state gambling jurisdictions.
