Apptopia Data Highlights One-Directional User Migration from Sportsbooks to Prediction Platforms alongside Demographic Expansion Among Women and Older Cohorts
App intelligence data by Apptopia and gathered during the 2026 FIFA World Cup reveals a widening divergence between traditional online sportsbooks and event-based prediction markets. While major sports betting applications experienced early activity spikes before fading toward month-end, prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket sustained upward momentum throughout June.
Across the core group analyzed, DraftKings [NASDAQ: DKNG], FanDuel (Flutter [NYSE: FLUT]), BetMGM [NYSE: MGM], and Caesars [NASDAQ: CZR], daily active users (DAUs) peaked on June 15, four days into the tournament, before experiencing declines ranging between 32% and 41% into month-end. Conversely, Kalshi and Polymarket expanded their active user pools over the same timeframe, capturing the lion’s share of new mobile app installs.
Daily Active User (DAU) Metrics and Download Dynamics
While traditional operators like DraftKings secured over 1.1 million downloads during June, market share shifts indicate that new digital bettors are increasingly gravitating toward event contract exchanges. When the combined daily-active pool quadrupled year-over-year in June, Kalshi captured 38% of the increase, while Polymarket claimed 13%.
During the month, Kalshi and Polymarket together dominated mobile distribution, commanding 78.5% of total App Store and Google Play installs across the analyzed group, while traditional sportsbooks represented the remaining 21.5%.
Performance Comparison Across Major US Betting Apps
The breakdown below details user growth patterns, peak activity timing, and engagement metrics across major sportsbook and prediction market platforms during June 2026:
- DraftKings: Peaked on June 15 before declining 36% by June 30. Engagement remained the highest in the group at approximately 19 sessions per DAU, maintaining its core male-dominated user base.
- FanDuel: Peaked on June 15 before falling 41% by June 30. Engagement averaged in the high-single digits per DAU, with growth remaining tightly clustered within traditional male demographics.
- BetMGM: Peaked on June 15 before falling 32% by June 30. Maintained high-single digit sessions per active user.
- Caesars: Peaked on June 15 before falling 32% by June 30. Maintained high-single digit sessions per active user.
- Kalshi: Active users increased 36% from June 15 to June 30. Female representation reached 33.3%, supported by accelerated growth among users aged 46 and above.
- Polymarket: Active users grew 12% from June 15 to late June, expanding its reach across global crypto and event traders.
Analyzing Cross-App Traffic and Demographics
Apptopia’s cross-app flow analysis challenges the hypothesis that prediction markets serve primarily as feeder platforms for traditional sportsbooks. The data demonstrates that traffic flows almost exclusively in one direction:
- DraftKings to Kalshi: Overlap rose from 12% on June 1 to 17.4% by June 22 (a 45% relative increase).
- FanDuel to Kalshi: Overlap increased 35% over the same stretch.
- Kalshi to Sportsbooks: The share of Kalshi users opening DraftKings or FanDuel actually declined over the period.
Furthermore, prediction markets are attracting a distinct demographic that traditional sportsbooks have struggled to convert. During the tournament, Kalshi’s female user cohort grew by 106% (compared to 54% for male users), driving its overall female active user share to 33.3%. In contrast, female user shares at DraftKings and FanDuel remained lower at 22% to 23%.
Tom Grant, VP of Research at Apptopia, commented on the market dynamics:
“The one-directional overlap is the number I’d want to underwrite before I got comfortable calling prediction markets purely incremental. DraftKings can own the most engaged bettor in the country and still be losing the argument for the next one, because the demographic Kalshi is adding doesn’t look like the base the sportsbooks spent a decade acquiring.”
