Modernized Online Framework and Marginal Tax Hikes Drive Long-Term Budget Growth as Meloni Government Fast-Tracks Retail and Advertising Reforms
Agenzia delle Entrate (ADE), Italy’s national tax and revenue agency, has formally closed its 2025 State Budget accounts while providing a “favourable opinion” on gambling tax receipts projected for 2026.
Following the audit of 2025 figures, the agency revised its 2026 expectations upward, forecasting an additional €807 million in gambling-related receipts as a budget adjustment. This optimistic outlook stems from systemic market restructuring, including the launch of Italy’s modernized online licensing regime in November 2025 and targeted gross gaming revenue (GGR) tax rate increases approved in the 2025 Budget Law.
Financial Breakdown: 2025 Performance vs. 2026 Projections
During 2025, non-lottery gambling licenses produced €6.66 billion in taxes and duties, accounting for approximately 1% of the government’s total annual tax taking of €668 billion. Concurrently, state concessions, covering lotteries, instant win games, and gaming machines, generated €22.28 billion collected by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) to support civic, cultural, and sports initiatives.
Italian Gambling Taxation Rate Adjustments
To expand long-term state revenues, the 2025 Budget Law instituted marginal tax increases across all primary gaming verticals, projected to deliver more than €500 million in additional annual revenue:
- Online Sports & Virtual Betting: GGR tax increased from 24.0% to 24.5%.
- Online Casino, Poker & Bingo: GGR tax increased from 25.0% to 25.5%.
- Retail Sports Betting: GGR tax increased from 20.0% to 20.5%.
- Retail Virtual Betting: GGR tax increased from 22.0% to 24.5%.
- Online Concession Fees: Complete regime overhaul launched in November 2025, with 52 concessions projected to deliver €365 million in total income.
Early 2026 Moderation
Despite long-term growth expectations, data for the first four months of 2026 (January to April) indicates a temporary revenue contraction. Gambling tax receipts totaled €2.52 billion, representing a 7.8% decline compared to the same period in 2025. Regulatory officials attribute this drop to reduced machine gaming returns in land-based venues and a temporary halving of active sports betting concessions during the market transition.
Legislative Initiatives: Reorganization Decrees and Dignity Decree Overhaul
The Meloni government is entering a crucial legislative phase, aiming to enact major gambling reforms before the domestic political landscape shifts toward the 2027 election cycle. The sequence began with the online regime launch in November 2025, followed by the short-term revenue moderation seen through April 2026. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has now set an August 2026 deadline for ministers to deliver both primary legislative packages for inclusion in the upcoming budget, well ahead of the 2027 election cycle.
1. Land-Based Gambling Reorganization
MEF Deputy Minister Maurizio Leo is negotiating with regional authorities to finalize the Reorganization of Land-Based Gambling Decree. While technical terms for a unified nationwide licensing structure across Italy’s 20 regions have been established, final agreement hinges on financial compensation arrangements for regional governments concerned about lost venue revenue and existing concessions.
2. Advertising Reform & The Dignity Decree Replacement
Sports Minister Andrea Abodi is finalizing a media and advertising bill designed to repeal and replace the 2018 Dignity Decree, which imposed a blanket ban on gambling marketing.
The bill’s timeline was temporarily paused following the election of Giovanni Malagò as President of the Italian Football Federation (FIGC) in June 2026. Malagò is advocating for the inclusion of a mandatory 2% levy on football betting turnover to directly fund Italian sports infrastructure, youth development, and stadium modernization.
